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After three years of challenges, the Ukrainian restaurant sector entered 2025 under difficult conditions. In 2024, restaurant traffic decreased, and consumers adapted their behavior due to the war and economic uncertainty. What should restaurateurs expect? We will analyze demographic changes, socio-economic factors, the competitive environment, and shifts in visitor preferences to understand how to adapt to these transformations.
Post-war realities and demographic shifts
Due to the full-scale war, the number of guests in establishments has significantly decreased. Millions of Ukrainians have left the country or moved to other regions. At the beginning of 2025, approximately 6.9 million Ukrainian refugees are abroad, and 3.7 million have the status of internally displaced persons. In addition, a significant number of young people and specialists have left or been mobilized.
However, with the end of hostilities, a return of the population and an increase in consumption are predicted. Experts forecast that the restaurant industry could become the “engine” of post-war economic recovery. Opening a restaurant or coffee shop is relatively quick and inexpensive, so this sector can most rapidly meet the pent-up demand of Ukrainians.
At the same time, if the war continues, the recovery of demand may be more restrained. The scenarios for 2025 depend on the security situation. These factors must be considered during planning: establishments that survive the hard times will have an advantage when the demographic situation begins to improve.
Consumer behavior and preferences
According to a Deloitte study, in 2023, 55% of Ukrainians visited restaurants and bars less often than before the war. The main reasons are the need to save money and security concerns.
In 2024, foot traffic to establishments decreased by 3% compared to the previous year. In the second half of the year, the drop was even more significant, at -7% compared to the same period in 2023. Interestingly, the structure of demand has changed: traditional restaurants, pizzerias, and fast-food places lost the most. In contrast, some niches even benefited. For example, sushi bars showed slight growth (+1% in attendance), and to-go coffee shops maintained their pre-crisis levels.
Global experience confirms similar changes in behavior. According to the National Restaurant Association, due to inflation, consumers visited dining establishments less frequently in 2024, and the share of takeout and delivery grew by 34%. For Ukrainian restaurants, these trends require a fight for every guest.
Increased competition and change of locations
Demand has fallen, but competition in the market remains high. Many restaurateurs, forced to close their businesses in frontline or occupied territories, have opened new restaurants in Kyiv, Lviv, and other cities. This has led to some oversaturation in certain segments. For example, about 1,500 coffee shops are currently operating in Kyiv. They compete for customers on almost every corner, forcing them to keep prices down and be creative.
The war has “redrawn” the map of the restaurant industry. The cities that have been hit by attacks or are near the front line have suffered the most. For instance, in 2024, Dnipro showed the worst dynamics: attendance there fell by 5%. In contrast, frontline Kharkiv recorded a small increase in guests (+2%), while Lviv and Odesa showed growth of ~1%. Kyiv remains a relatively stable market, although its figures have also dropped slightly: the revenue of the capital’s establishments fell by 3% in 2024.
An interesting phenomenon is the entry of Ukrainian brands into foreign markets. Having lost the opportunity to develop in Ukraine, popular chains have focused their efforts on the EU. For example, the Lviv-based bakery chain Lviv Croissants has already opened 12 locations in Poland and has entered the Czech Republic. The Galician holding !FEST is actively expanding the franchise of its “Piana Vyshnia” (Drunken Cherry) bar in Europe.
Forecasts and advice for restaurateurs for 2025
If the security situation improves, the return of some emigrants, increased consumer confidence, and more people going out can be expected in the second half of the year. At the same time, restaurateurs must realize that people’s financial capacity will recover slowly and unevenly.
Based on current trends, several recommendations can be made for restaurateurs on how to respond to changes in demand in 2025:
- Adapt to the new audience. Many of your potential guests are internally displaced persons or people who have returned from abroad. Try to attract them with special offers or communication. For example, the Pesto Cafe chain focused its marketing on the IDP audience after the war began.
- Ensure multi-channel service. The pandemic and the war have accustomed Ukrainians to online ordering, and this channel will remain important. Invest in convenient delivery and takeout if you haven’t already done so.
- Maintain a balance of price and quality. With falling real incomes, price sensitivity is higher than ever. Review your menu: are there enough moderately priced items? It might be worth introducing special offers for lunches, combo sets, or smaller portions to attract budget-conscious guests.
- Monitor the market and competitors. 2025 promises to be dynamic: some will open, some will close. Follow the trends: what concepts are “taking off” in your city, and which are losing popularity. Perhaps it’s worth narrowing your concept to become the best in one niche, or conversely, offering an innovative idea that isn’t yet on the market.
Thus, demand in the restaurant industry will be shaped at the crossroads of caution and the desire to return to normal life. Restaurateurs who quickly adapt to new conditions will be able to survive the downturn and become industry leaders in post-war Ukraine.
Right now, it’s important not to face these challenges alone. The team at BRG consulting company helps owners and managers of establishments adapt their businesses to the new realities. We analyze the market, develop strategies to increase profitability and optimize costs. We consult on launching new concepts and restarting existing ones. Together with us, you can take the right steps today to look confidently into tomorrow.
The team of the BRG consulting company helps owners and managers of establishments adapt their business to new realities.