Investing in Ukrainian Restaurants: A Guide for Brave Investors

Investing in a restaurant in a country at war sounds like the beginning of a joke. Any financial advisor would shake their head in disbelief. But the Ukrainian restaurant market is not just a business. It is a phenomenon. A symbol of resilience that refuses to close even when sirens are blaring. And it is precisely these bold investments in Ukraine that are shaping its economic future today.

A portrait of Ukrainian HoReCa in numbers and facts

The full-scale invasion hit the restaurant business harder than the two-year pandemic. In the first nine months of the war, about 7,000 establishments closed. However, during the same period, more than 2,000 new restaurants and cafes opened.

Let’s look at the statistics for 2024.

Overall, revenue from establishments in Ukraine grew by 10%, and the average check increased by 17%. However, the number of guests decreased by 3%. This means that restaurateurs passed on price increases to customers, who began to visit less often, even though they pay more per visit.

Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Zakarpattia regions are experiencing a boom due to the large number of displaced persons who have formed a new solvent demand. Lviv and Odesa are the only large cities where the number of guests has increased by 1%. In Kyiv, attendance fell by 3%, and in Dnipro, by 5%. In the Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions, the market fell by more than 50%.

The crisis hit mid-range establishments the hardest. They turned out to be too expensive for those who are saving money and not premium enough for high-income audiences.

Risk analysis: key investment risks

If you are still here and ready to invest, congratulations. Now let’s take a detailed look at the main investment risks.

Military (obvious and unpredictable)

There is a constant threat of destruction of assets as a result of missile strikes or drone attacks. Frequent air raid sirens lead to work stoppages, financial losses, and spoiled products.

Economic

Energy independence has become a mandatory expense. Inflation is forcing restaurateurs to choose between raising prices and losing margins. Declining household incomes reduce the frequency of visits and the average check. The result is a profitability crisis: 47% of restaurateurs earned less than expected in 2024, and 21% made no profit at all. These factors create a lot of economic risks for investments.

Operational

Staff shortages are one of the biggest problems. Some skilled workers have left the country, men are being mobilized, and new employees need training. There is a continuing risk of logistics disruptions, which affects the availability and cost of ingredients. Unpredictable demand due to anxiety leads to inefficient planning and product write-offs.

Legal

Businesses are forced to operate under the changing legislation of martial law, which includes curfews and other restrictions. The lack of a single law governing work during air raid alerts creates a chaotic situation where decisions are made by local military administrations. This adds a layer of complexity that any investment in Ukraine must take into account.

Market development prospects

Despite the difficulties, experts predict that 2025 could be a turning point for the market. A recovery is expected to begin, opening up new opportunities for sustainable businesses and profitable investments in restaurants.

The future of the market will be shaped by the following trends:

• New formats: food halls, dark kitchens, pop-up restaurants.
• New flavors: Southeast Asian cuisine, a renaissance of modern snack bars and lunch cafes.
• Health and awareness: a focus on healthy eating, plant-based alternatives, and local products.

Successful investments in Ukrainian restaurants today are a high-stakes game that requires careful preparation.

Ready to take on the challenge, but don’t want to go in blind? The BRG team has helped dozens of investors successfully realize their investments in Ukraine.

Contact us to discuss your project and turn a high-risk idea into a highly profitable reality.

Frequently asked questions

Is it safe to open a restaurant in Ukraine right now?

Safety is the top priority. There is no such thing as absolute safety, but there are ways to minimize investment risks: choose a location with shelter, consider the security situation in the region, and take out insurance.

How much money do you need to get started?

The amount of investment in restaurants depends on the format. Opening a small kiosk is a lot cheaper than a full-fledged restaurant. The main rule is to add 15-20% to any budget for unforeseen expenses. A detailed business plan is a must.

Which type of establishment has the best chance of success?

The market is polarized, so either the most democratic formats (fast food, coffee shops) or premium restaurants fare best. Establishments with a narrow specialization (single products) and flexible models, such as dark kitchens, have a good chance of success. This is important to consider when planning investments in Ukraine.

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